JEREMY'S DAILY JEWELS
It’s All About the Money, Honey.
A lot of times when you take in dfs analysis, you’ll hear all about someone’s price being “down.” The term “down” is relative, and can be ambiguous when taken without context.
What I think is important to look for, however, is a price drop. The Fanduel and DraftKings algorithms may be tougher to crack than the nuclear launch codes, but when looking over past results, it becomes a great tool in predicting results for certain players.
I am, for the most part, talking about “stars” here (LeBron, Harden, AD, Curry, Durant, Giannis, etc.), or at least guys who play every day without having their role change. The trick is, figuring out which players you should look to target after a price drop – based on a pattern of traditional success in that scenario.
Let’s try to “crack” the algorithms. I picked out a few examples that I think stand out.
First, we’ll look at Anthony Davis. With a few exceptions (his behemoth performance in Boston included), AD is a guy you want to target after his price drops, and avoid after his price rises.
To illustrate this, let’s evaluate his game logs since early December. The green values in the “Change” column indicate scenarios after his price dropped and you should want to target him. Check out how often the green in the “FD Pts” column (indicating a good performance) correlates with a price drop:
On the other end of the spectrum, I’ve noticed that for Giannis Antetokounmpo, a price drop doesn’t indicate all that much.
(Unrelated, I’ve found that past performance against an opponent is very, very useful in predicting Greek the Freak’s outcomes – much more than it is with other players. Without even looking, I already know that he kills it against Boston, Cleveland, Sacramento, Brooklyn, and Washington.)
Surprisingly, with Fanduel’s algorithm, Draymond Green is cake to predict. Literally every single time Dray-Dray’s price drops on Fanduel, with the sole exception of the Minnesota game, he goes out and puts up a monstrous performance that smashes 5x value.
Ignore the Memphis game where he only played 10 minutes.
With other players, there seems to be a “threshold” where, if the player’s price falls below that number, it means they’re due to blow up and their price will soon be on the rise. For Dame Lillard, that number looks like it’s $9,000 on Fanduel. Except for three games where he either injured himself or had just returned from an injury and wasn’t quite back to 100% (shown in red), Dame Dolla crushes it every time his price drops below $9K.
Milwaukee, Philly, and Phoenix are all playing on the second night of a back-to-back/3 games in 4 days scenario.
Memphis is the only team coming off two days of rest, everyone not mentioned is coming off a single day of rest.
Let’s Talk About Peripherals, Baby:
Have a glance at what the teams in action on Monday are allowing per game to opponents since January 1.
Yo Philly, IDFWU anymore.
You can follow Jeremy on Twitter @zinneDFS