JEREMY'S DAILY JEWELS
Throughout this NBA season I’ll be sharing some interesting notes and quotes I come across while doing my research for the upcoming DFS slate in a new DGCourtroom.com feature called: Jeremy’s Daily Jewels.
As the season progress, looking at season-long DvP becomes less and less relevant when predicting the outcome for one single game. Injuries, fatigue, rotational changes, and other factors make looking at defensive stats over the past week far superior indicators when it comes to dfs. Of the teams in action on Wednesday, first we’ll look at three-point shooting percentage by opponents over the past eight days.
Based on this information, we should probably be targeting hot shooters from Orlando, Dallas, Golden State, New Orleans, Charlotte, Minnesota, New York, and Denver that could be in situations that allow them to stay hot through Wednesday’s action.
With steals and blocks now such a huge deal for the Fanduel scoring system, it would be advantageous to also look at which teams having been allowing the most of each over the past eight days.
Three of Atlanta’s big men, Dewayne Dedmon, John Collins, and Mike Muscala are expected to miss Wednesday’s game against Orlando. Without three rotation guys, we can expect all of Atlanta’s players to benefit. Here are their stats thus far with all three off the court. They are in terms of per 36 minutes, so the FDpt/36 column (Fanduel points per 36) will probably be more accurate for guys like Dennis Schroder who should see close to that total.
Another big injury on Wednesday’s slate will be Steph Curry so we can look at how his fellow Warriors are faring with him off the court this season.
No huge surprises here in that Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, and Nick Young take the most shots without Curry on the floor. It appears that Pat McCaw has pulled ahead of Swaggy 3 in Coach Steve Kerr’s rotation, so McCaw makes for a nice value play should he be able to suit up following a facial injury he sustained on Monday.
Draymond Green may be a candidate to receive a few more assists while Curry’s out.
Though Cory Joseph being listed as questionable for Indiana is not usually fantasy relevant news, if he sits on Wednesday it would give a boost to both Darren Collison’s and even Lance Stephenson’s minutes. Indiana opened as 9.5-point home favorites over Chicago, and “Make ‘Em Dance” Lance is even garbage-time safe. If you haven’t seen the And-One-esque move he put on Frank Ntilikina, I strongly suggest you check it out here.
Andre Drummond, who leads the league with 15.0 rebounds per game, gets a Milwaukee Bucks team ranking dead last in total rebounding at 46.8%. Drummond is averaging 1.6 Fanduel points per minute in his two matchups against the Bucks this season.
With Tim Hardaway Jr. being shelved for at least two weeks, his 24% usage will need to be divided up amongst the rest of his squad. Let’s see who’s getting the biggest bump with THJ off the floor this season:
Anthony Davis’ status for Wednesday in currently unknown, but if he’s out, it’s straight lock-and-load on DeMarcus Cousins against a Nikola Jokic-less Nuggets team. In his last two games, both without AD, Boogie Cousins took 28 shots and posted a 47% usage in one and recorded 8 combined blocks & steals in the other.
Also on the Pels, Jrue Holiday is a top-notch play without AD in the lineup. I think stacking Rajon Rondo and Jamal Murray aka the Broken Arrow could be a highly-correlated, high-upside stack.
E’Twaun Moore’s price has risen to the point where there’s not much value left, and Darius Miller is seeing more minutes but not exactly seeing an increase in production.
On the Denver side, the Manimal Kenneth Faried is making the most of his new opportunity, putting up double-digit points and at least 8 rebounds in each of his five starts. If he can add a few blocks or steals, he’s easily giving you 40+ fantasy points a night at a salary in the $5K’s.
The public is likely to be all over Will Barton again in this matchup, but I’ll take the $800 savings ($900 on DK) and feel all sorts of jolly rostering Gary Harris on Wednesday. It’s been six games since Gary the Snail shot less than 8 three-balls.
On DraftKings, Jimmy Butler is still entirely too cheap at only $7.6K. Buckets has put up more than 45 fantasy points in 5 out of his last 6.
Willie Cauley-Stein will miss Sacramento’s game in Cleveland, giving a huge boost to Zach Randolph in the front court. After Cauley-Stein went down early in their last game versus Chicago on Saturday, Z-Bo filled in nicely, playing a season-high 33 minutes and racking up 32 Fanduel points. The old goon still got it.
There are no back-to-backs, however, the Spurs, Magic, Knicks, Timberwolves, and Warriors are all playing their third game in four nights.
Let’s Talk About Pace, Baby:
ATL (11) @ ORL (6)
CHI (22) @ IND (9)
SAC (28) @ CLE (14)
DAL (24) @ BOS (23)
MEM (30) @ NYK (18)
GSW (5) @ CHA (10)
DET (21) @ MIL (26)
DEN (13) @ NOP (7)
MIA (17) @ SAS (29)
MIN (25) @ LAC (20)
(League rank as of 12/05)
Will you be loading up on Nuggs and Pels on Wednesday like I will? I’d love to hear any discussion about this slate in the comments section below.
You can follow Jeremy on Twitter @zinneDFS