JEREMY'S DAILY JEWELS
Throughout this NBA season I’ll be sharing some interesting notes and quotes I come across while doing my research for the upcoming DFS slate in a new DGCourtroom.com feature called: Jeremy’s Daily Jewels.
Bees, mountains, snow, trolleys, rock arches, salt, and (for the time being) dfs value are all things the state of Utah is known for.
Rudy Gobert’s first absence due to injury spanned from November 11 to December 4. It’s important to look at how the rest of the Jazz’s players’ current prices compare to where they were when Gobert returned. In other words, anybody who is cheaper now than they were on December 1 (Utah’s last game without Gobert) is considered a value because they’re not yet priced up for their expanded role.
Note that Joe Johnson was also injured during that stretch and he mostly takes minutes away from Thabo Sefolosha and Jonas Jerebko.
Rodney Hood must enjoy playing at the ‘Yota Center in Houston. Last season he shot (8-13) and (8-14) from the field in his two games there, earning over 30 Fanduel points each time.
Assuming Derrick Favors can go, whether Clint Capela plays for the Rockets will likely determine Utah’s starting five. If Capela starts, Utah will likely counter by once again unleashing their cheat code named Ekpe Udoh aka Baby Mutombo. Even if Utah goes small and starts Favors at the 5, the 2017 EuroLeague Finals MVP has shown enough to solidify minutes as well as serious dfs consideration for as long as Gobert is out.
Without Capela in their last game, Space City went small with P.J. Tucker drawing the start at center and playing a total of 37 minutes. The (Grey) Beard Nenê was fantastic off the bench, racking up 28 Fanduel points in only 19 minutes.
"I wasn't feeling well at all, but the doc came in and just told me that there's going to be pain for a bit, but you can play through it. It can't get worse, but it's going to be pretty painful until obviously you give it some time… I wasn't moving like I usually move, but we won.” – James Harden’s comments regarding his bruised knee after the Milwaukee game on Saturday.
Note to self: resist the urge to play The (Black) Beard until he’s recovered from this knee injury. In the meantime, guys like Chris Paul, Eric Gordon, and even Trevor Ariza could receive small boosts.
After three straight so-so fantasy performances on the Blazers east coast trip, Dame Lillard has seen his price drop from $9.5K to $8.7K on Fanduel. Although he only came up with 41 fantasy points in his last outing, Dame Dollar finished just 3 rebounds short of a trip-dub. So far this season Dame, who’s average price on Fanduel is close to $9.4K, has seen his price tag dip below the $9K threshold only four times. All four occasions have resulted in very solid outings.
With starting center Joel Embiid and back-up big man Trevor Booker both being out for Philly’s game in Chi-Town, Dario Saric, Amir Johnson, and Richaun Holmes will absorb the majority of the Sixers’ frontcourt minutes while Robert Covington sees more time at power forward.
Johnson is the favorite to draw the start at center like he did the last time Embiid was rested in Cleveland, but I will be more interested in Holmes even if he ends up coming off the bench. Over his last five games, Holmes, the Chicagoland native, is averaging 1.15 Fanduel points per minute.
I know you were pondering which Philly players see increases or decreases in some key categories when The Process is off the floor.
Me likes the Covvy Bear – another Chicago dude.
While Holmes plays hard and is talented, Dario Saric plays more on the perimeter and Amir is… well, Amir. This likely leaves the 76ers vulnerable on the interior and I’d like to take advantage of it on the Chicago side. I almost hope Lauri Markkanen sits this out because it’s a great matchup for Bobby Portis who’s still affordable at $5.0K FD/$4.7K DK. Fanduel is asking a bit too much for Nicola Mirotic IMO at $7K, but $5.9K on DK is fair if The Finnish Freak Markkanen is out.
Draymond Green will be out for the World Champs which means rookie Jordan Bell is scheduled to make his fifth start of the season. (That’s one, two, three, four, FIF!)
In his four previous starts, Bell has averaged 30.15 Fanduel points and 23.75 minutes – which comes out to 1.27 Fanduel points per minute. Let’s, for a minute, oversimply the Fanduel pricing algorithm and assume each player is priced to where they’re expected to hit 5 times value. If this were the case, then when Bell starts his 30.15 Fanduel points should cost us $6.0K. But because he has games where he comes off the bench and sees under 10 minutes of tick, his price is only $4.7K on FD and $4.5K on DK. These are the types of little edges that Chipotle’s Super Computer takes advantage of.
Like Bell, it can be argued that Omri Casspi is also too cheap for his role as a starter. In Casspi’s six starts this season, he’s averaging 26.25 Fanduel points in 26 minutes (1.00 FD points per minute). Using the same logic, Casspi should cost $5.3K when he starts but is underpriced at only $4.5K on FD and $4.1K on DK.
Shaun Livingston sitting out Monday’s game for the Warriors means Pat McCaw will start at point guard and Quin Cook, fresh off his G-League stint, will serve as the primary backup. Of the two, McCaw has shown the most promise and production at the NBA-level and is the better option if you feel it necessary to play a minimum salary point guard.
How do Warriors’ players fare compared to their season averages when Green, Livingston, Steph Curry, and Zaza Pachulia are off the court? Funny you should ask.
When Swaggy-3 Nick Young returns to his former stomping grounds at the Staples Center, will he steal the show and have fans petition to change the arena’s name to the Swaggy Center?! The answer is no, probably not.
It was really striking to see Kentavious Caldwell Pope’s price had fallen by $500 on Fanduel to only $5.4K after missing last Thursday’s game in Cleveland due to a legal issue.
To most basketball junkies Caldwell-Pope goes by the nickname KCP, but maybe now we need to change that to KCPO. (As in: Kentavious Caldwell Probation Officer).
Does anyone know if he must wear an ankle monitor now too? I’m worried about how that could affect his jump shot.
Indiana is on the second night of a back-to-back.
The Celtics, Hornets, Rockets, Pacers, Clippers, Heat, Thunder, Blazers, Spurs and Jazz are all playing their third game in four days.
Both the Warriors and Lakers have had three full days of rest since they last played.
Let’s Talk About Pace, Baby:
NYK (19) @ CHA (9)
BOS (25) @ IND (10)
MIA (23) @ ATL (12)
PHI (5) @ CHI (16)
DEN (13) @ OKC (22)
UTA (26) @ HOU (8)
POR (17) @ MIN (20)
PHX (3) @ DAL (27)
LAC (18) @ SAS (29)
GSW (4) @ LAL (1)
(League rank as of 12/17)
I’d love to hear your take on Monday’s slate or any feedback in the comments section below.
You can follow Jeremy on Twitter @zinneDFS