JEREMY'S DAILY JEWELS
Throughout this NBA season I’ll be sharing some interesting notes and quotes I come across while doing my research for the upcoming DFS slate in a new DGCourtroom.com feature called: Jeremy’s Daily Jewels.
We’ll need to check the news after shootaround and prior to lineup lock for updates on Buzz City hoopers Frank Kaminsky, Nicolas Batum, and Jeremy Lamb. All three are listed as questionable in the game notes. If Lamb or Batum, or especially if both are out, Kemba Walker will be a top-notch play at PG. Kemba’s price dropping by $400 on FD and $500 on DK = $$$$.
It’s tough to roster Dwight Howard on FD after his price was jacked up by $1K, but $7.5K is a fair price on DK given the extra run D-12 is seeing. Marvin Williams can be had for just a pinch over half of Howard’s price on FD and should not have to deal with the barbarian that is Steve Adams that often.
Who did it better – Adams or Derek Zoolander?
OKC has been playing sloppy ball over the past week, and they are fittingly allowing the 3rd highest combined steals and blocked shots per minute (0.32) to opponents over that period. Portland (0.39) has been surrendering the most. Charlotte, on the other hand, has the lowest turnover percentage in the whole league.
Paul George, whose price is down on both sites and has a splendid matchup (wings versus Charlotte), is undoubtedly in a great spot but the fact that he’s returning from a lower-body muscle injury scares me a little bit. If he were coming back from an upper-body ailment I’d feel a lot more confident in the play. Maybe it’s wait-and-see with PG.
Boston, New Orleans, and Toronto are on the second night of a back-to-back, which is also each team’s 3rd game in 4 nights. We can look at which players have logged heavy minutes over the past 3 nights, and therefore may be at risk for seeing decreased minutes or sub-par production.
Marcus Morris has been ruled out and Al Horford is listed as questionable for Monday’s contest in The Chi. We can see from the chart above that Aron Baynes sees the biggest increase in playing time when Morris is out.
Following Sunday’s game, Horford told masslive.com this regarding his knee: “It’s sore. We’ll see how I am tomorrow.” If the C’s do indeed play it safe and rest Big Al on Monday, let’s have a glance at who sees the biggest increases in some key categories per 36 minutes with Horford off the floor.
Despite seeing heavy minutes as of late, the Pels rotation players all become more valuable should Anthony Davis aka the Big Locker Room Visit sit out on Monday. Without AD, N’Orleans would be at obvious risk of getting ran out the gym in the Toyota Center, however, we should be less concerned about the likes of Rajon Rondo who is scoring 66% of his points this season in the paint and backcourt partner Jrue Holiday (53%). Surprisingly, both are scoring more of their points in the paint than DeMarcus Cousins (47%).
Jrue’s and Rondo’s prices just dropped on both FD and DK, while Boogie Cousins’ fell by over $1,000 on DK.
The Bearded One James Harden is someone who traditionally shoots better at home and is coming off a game where he shot 16-29 in Portland. Harden should keep cookin’ in this one, making it a real tough call between him and Kevin Durant where they’re essentially the same price on FD.
There’s not much that needs to be said about how great of a spot Durant will be in when the Warriors return to the Yay Area on Monday night. In fact, KD has not participated in a game at home since November 13.
Draymond Green will be a superb play on DK where he only cost $7.4K. He’s put up over 50 fantasy points in every game since Steph Curry’s been out and has a history of triple-doubling against Portland.
Dame Lillard will be playing in the city he reps harder than any professional athlete besides Marshawn Lynch, but check the news to make sure he’ll be okay after rolling his ankle in the fourth quarter Saturday. Dame sees over an 8% increase in usage with Jusuf Nurkic off the court and C.J. McCollum’s increases by greater than 4%.
The other Trail Blazer who benefits the most without Nurk is Al-Farouq Aminu. “Chief” Aminu is likely to see over 30 minutes for the third straight game and should attempt more than his usual number of long-balls against Golden State. If Portland must go small to counter the Warriors (we can’t all it the Death Lineup without Steph so maybe it’s just the Comatosis Lineup for now?), Aminu will likely play center and grab a few more rebounds than he would with Ed Davis or Myers Leonard on the floor.
Let’s Talk About Pace, Baby:
BOS (25) @ CHI (16)
MIA (20) @ MEM (30)
CHA (9) @ OKC (21)
NOP (6) @ HOU (8)
TOR (11) @ LAC (18)
POR (15) @ GSW (4)
(League rank as of 12/10)
I’d love to hear any feedback in the comments section below.
You can follow Jeremy on Twitter @zinneDFS