JEREMY'S DAILY JEWELS
Throughout this NBA season I’ll be sharing some interesting notes and quotes I come across while doing my research for the upcoming DFS slate in a new DGCourtroom.com feature called: Jeremy’s Daily Jewels.
Right off the bat LeBron James will square off with Giannis Antetokounmpo, and to be compliant with NBA rules, 8 other warm bodies will have to share the court with them. There’s not a whole lot to say about these two – as we all know how good they are. LeBron would figure to have the higher ownership with his epic performance on national television still fresh on people’s minds. Giannis’ price is down to the lowest it’s been since the third game of the season.
As you probably know by now, we can call this the “Flow Chart Game” because one chart leads us to play centers against Milwaukee and the other leads us to “anyone against Cleveland,” including your grandma. Kevin Love really stands out at the center position with a price of only $7K on Fanduel. Opposing centers are shooting 59% from the field against the Bucks, 2nd highest in the league. Love already put up 42 Fanduel points against Milwaukee this season without making a single three-pointer.
Also on the Bucks, John Henson can save you some salary and is averaging 27 Fanduel points in his two starts despite only scoring 4 points in each game. Jae Crowder cannot possibly play worse than he did on Sunday against the Hawks and is $600 cheaper than Henson.
It was reported over the weekend that Derrick Rose will remain on a 28-30 minute limit this season, but did anyone really expect him to play much more than that?
The Bucks-Cavs game opened at a 217.5 total and immediately jumped to 220.5, with Cleveland remaining a 4-point favorite.
Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis were essentially in a timeshare their last game with Sabonis even seeing about 5 more minutes of action. Coach Nate McMillan appears to be easing Turner back into action after missing two weeks with a concussion. With Davis and Cousins rolling into town, it would make sense for Turner to see the 24 minutes he played last game increase. The Pacers’ game notes even have Turner listed as a starter for Tuesday. If this turns out to be true, Myles would be a steal at only $7K on Fanduel.
Sabonis is questionable but currently expected to suit up on Tuesday. If he sits, Turner would become close to a must-play (assuming we don’t hear about any sort of minute limits).
Victor Oladipo has attempted over 20 shots in each of his last three games and has a usage rate of 30.5 on the season. Dipo is being asked to do it all for his squad and should easily exceed 5x value at his $7.3K salary on Fanduel. If you can jam it in, an Oladipo-Turner stack is very appealing for Tuesday night.
Another day, another up-tempo match in which Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins should both excel. Keep in mind that Turner has missed much of the season so far, but the Pacers are currently giving up the 2nd most pace-adjusted Fanduel points per minute to both power forwards and to centers. You really can’t go wrong with either of the Pelicans’ twin towers, especially when each saw a slight drop to their Fanduel prices.
Outside of AD and Boogie, we can also look to Jrue Holiday, who’s logged 38, 38, and 41 minute totals in his last three games while Rajon Rondo remains out.
We’ll need to keep any eye out for news on John Wall’s status for Tuesday. If he sits, Tim Frazier, the former G-League MVP, stands to benefit the most (dfs wise) and saw 31 minutes replacing Wall in the starting lineup on Sunday. Bradley Beal would again see a big bump in usage, but at a tag of $8.5K against the Mavericks, we might be better off paying up for other studs. And because most players will have that same mindset, Beal could be fairly low-owned on Tuesday.
The Wizards are getting torched night-in and night-out by opposing small forwards, allowing the most pace-adjusted Fanduel points per minute to the positon. While these numbers are surely skewed by LeBron’s monster Friday night, even heading into that game the Wiz were still ranked first. Harrison Barnes has attempted more than 10 shots in every game so far, and has also shot over 50% from the field in each of his last 3 games. At $6.2K on Fanduel, he has a very good shot at exceeding 5X value on Tuesday and will get a boost if Coach Rick Carlisle decides to rest anyone else.
On a slate that doesn’t offer many super-high game totals, the Hornets and Knicks figures to be one of the most fantasy friendly environments of the night. You have to love Kemba Walker’s price on Fanduel of only $7.4K. The Knicks are allowing the 3rd most pace-adjusted Fanduel points per minute to opposing point guards. Kemba grew up in The Bronx and, when he’s playing well, his game shows off some of his Rucker Park style. Walker is at his lowest price tag of the season and has scored 31, 17, 34, and 31 real-life points in his last four visits to Madison Square Garden. Anytime I think of Kemba playing in The Garden, his nasty cross-over and game winner in college versus Pitt always comes to mind.
Dwight Howard is dealing with a foot sprain and is probably too risky for us to trust given the plethora of other options available to us at center on Tuesday. I’m hoping Howard sits on Tuesday because Frank Kaminsky would then become close to a lock for me. Charlotte would probably start Cody Zeller, but Frank the Tank could push 30 minutes and Coach Steve Clifford has already shown he’s not afraid to leave Kaminsky in to close out games if he’s playing well.
Kristaps Porzingis is almost $2K cheaper than both Davis and Boogie Cousins at $9.8K and he’s been averaging over 30 real-life points per game. Lordzingis has put up over 50 Fanduel points in 5 of his last 6 games and still costs only $9.8K. Typically, you’d expect his price tag to be well over $10K by now but because it isn’t, he can probably still be considered a relative bargain. It’s surprising he’s only averaging 1.0 assists per game when you consider how often the ball is in his hands in the Knicks offense.
Porzingis is first in the league among qualified players with 24 field goal attempts per 36 minutes.
After shooting 1-7 on three-pointers in his last game and 3-11 the game before that, it may be time to cash in your chips and admit that Tim Hardaway Jr.’s nice little hot streak is officially over.
Before rostering any Brooklyn Nets, consider that they will be playing on the second night of a B2B, at altitude in Denver – not a situation in which NBA players usually excel. Still though, we can’t ignore D’Angelo Russell’s juicy price of only $7.3K on Fanduel.
In Monday night’s sickening game against the Suns, Russell and Joe Harris played a 2-man game for long stretches. Even after Harris’ fluke performance, Caris LeVert and Alan Crabbe remain far superior tournaments options.
The Nuggets will be playing up 15-places in pace, and therefore are a team we should be looking to target rather heavily on Tuesday.
The problem sometimes with rostering anyone on Mike Malone’s squad is that predicting minutes can become difficult as he tends to ride the hot hand with his players – whether it’s playing Will Barton, Emmanuel Mudiay, or even (Lord help us) Kenneth Faried extended minutes in lieu of putting his starters back in.
Jamal Murray has been struggling mightily across his last two outings, shooting only 5-15 with a combined 2 rebounds and 2 total assists. However, The Blue Arrow did break out of an early season slump when the Nuggets faced the Nets earlier this season. After their game on October 29, Coach Mike Malone said: “Before the game this morning (Murray) said, `Coach right now I’m a broken arrow,' I said, `No, you’re not. You’re going to be fine. Just stay with it. I believe in you and you have to believe in yourself.’ Tonight, he came out and imposed his will on the game and was fantastic for us” (Denver.cbslocal.com).
Murray remains strictly a tournament option.
Look for Gary Harris to bounce-back after his clunker on Saturday night against Golden State. In that game, he only attempted 1 three-pointer and 4 total shots. It is concerning that Gary hasn’t shown much of a ceiling yet this season. Then again, a date with the Nets can be the perfect slump-buster.
Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap should clean-up on the glass against the Nets, who rank 25th in team rebounding percentage. Timofey Mozgov won’t be able to chase The Joker around out on the perimeter, and if Rondae Hollis-Jefferson can’t go, the Nets will be extra-thin in the frontcourt. Brooklyn gives up the 5th most blocked shots per game to their opponents. In addition, opposing centers are shooting 58% on field goals and 47% on three-pointers against the Nets.
Kyle Lowry was tossed from his last game and could very well come out angry and firing away against the Bulls. Opposing point guards are nabbing the most pace-adjusted steals per minute and 4th most pace-adjusted assists per minute versus Chicago.
Justin Holiday shot the ball 20 times in his last outing and would be expected to see an even bigger workload on offense now with the David Nwaba injury. His salary is very fair at only $5.7K on Fanduel.
Rudy Gobert would appear to be in a blow-up spot against the Joel Embiid-less Sixers, although rostering Rudy has been let-down city so far this season. Richaun Holmes would hopefully see his minutes trend up after only seeing 10 in his last game, but is way too risky unless we hear definitive news confirming he’ll see a full workload on Tuesday. What other options do the Sixers have at center? Can we expect Jahlil Okafor to pull an Undertaker and come back from the dead?
Nobody enjoys rostering players against the Grizzlies, but C.J. McCollum’s price of only $6.8K on Fanduel jolts him into the conversation for Tuesday. Despite the price drop, 3-J is heating up, shooting 6-9 from downtown in his last game and 5-8 the game before that.
Even with Marc Gasol in the lineup Memphis still ranks as the 26th best rebounding team in the league while Portland still ranks 1st. The Grizz are really banged up right now so we’ll be paying attention to see if Gasol or Mike Conley sit this one out. After playing in both ends of a back-to-back, Conley seems to be getting closer to full health. Tyreke Evans and Mario Chalmers would both become top-plays if Conley does sit for any reason. Assuming no other huge values opens for Tuesday night, you could do worse than paying $3.7K for Dillion Brooks, who’s starting and played his college ball 2-hours down the road at the University of Oregon.
The Sacramento Kings are absolutely dreadful against opposing point guards, shooting guards, and centers – leading us to take a long look at both Russell Westbrook and Steven Adams on this slate. It will be interesting to see how much lower Westbrook’s price eventually drops than the $10.2K he’s currently at on Fanduel. Despite playing at the slowest pace in the league, Sacramento’s opponents are grabbing the 5th most rebounds per game. As with all Kings’ games, you always need to consider the blow-out factor.
After Blake Griffin put up 50 and 43 Fanduel point performances in his last two games, Fanduel managed to drop his price from $9K to $8.4K on Tuesday. Even though we shouldn’t love playing anyone against the Spurs on a 10-game slate, getting Blake at this price is akin to finding some Gucci products at your local dollar store. Sometimes I wonder if Fanduel even has anyone double-checking these prices before they’re released.
The Nets are on the second night of a back-to-back.
The Knicks and Pacers are playing their first game in 2 nights.
Let’s Talk About Pace, Baby:
MIL (23) @ CLE (13)
NOP (7) @ IND (9)
DAL (24) @ WAS (11)
CHA (10) @ NYK (19)
CHI (29) @ TOR (14)
LAC (20) @ SAS (22)
BKN (1) @ DEN (16)
PHI (4) @ UTA (28)
MEM (27) @ POR (18)
OKC (21) @ SAC (30)
(League rank as of 11/6)
I’d love to hear any hot takes on Tuesday’s slate or general feedback in the comments section below.
You can follow Jeremy on Twitter @zinneDFS