JEREMY'S DAILY JEWELS
Throughout this NBA season I’ll be sharing some interesting notes and quotes I come across while doing my research for the upcoming DFS slate in a new DGCourtroom.com feature called: Jeremy’s Daily Jewels.
The Atlanta Hawks, fresh off their upset win over the Cavaliers on Sunday, will return home for a matchup with the Celtics. Dennis Schroder lead the charge netting an uber-efficient 28 points on only 13 shots. Schroder’s price on Fanduel dropped by $200 to only $7.8K for Monday, placing him squarely in play for us despite Boston allowing only the 29th most pace-adjusted Fanduel points per minute to point guards.
Kent Bazemore and Taurean Prince both figure to log heavy minutes yet again for the Hawks who are dealing with injuries to five of their rotation players. The Baze and Prince both have Coach Mike Budenholzer’s trust and figure to be a locked-in to 30+ minutes – although the Hawks frankly don’t have many other options.
The Hawks’ talented big man John Collins recorded the 3rd double-double of his rookie season on Sunday while playing 24 minutes off the bench. Collins, like other young power forwards around the league, has really struggled with foul trouble and isn’t someone we should be trusting for cash games right now.
The Hawks currently rank 28th in the league on total rebounding percentage, while their opponent, the Celtics, currently rank 2nd.
Atlanta’s opponents are attempting the 2nd most three-pointers per game, grabbing the 2nd most rebounds, dishing out the 2nd most assists, and snatching the 6th most steals per contest in the league.
Boston has won a league-high 8 games in a row. None of the Celtics’ starters logged more than 30 minutes on Sunday in the first half of their back-to-back. Marcus Smart was Boston’s best player, flirting with a triple-double off the bench en route to an 11/8/8 and 3 steals line.
Prior to the Celtics’ game on Sunday, coach Brad Stevens told the media that Marcus Morris would be limited to 20-22 minutes. We’ll check the news on Monday but if Morris is rested against Atlanta, that would provide a significant boost to Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Al Horford – with even Aaron Baynes coming into play on this short slate.
Either way Jaylen Brown will be a top-option at a loaded SF positon for such a small slate. Boston is playing up 19-spots in pace in what should be a game that allows Brown to fill up the stat sheet.
Kyrie Irving’s price tag has finally caught up to account for his string of 40+ fantasy point performances, rising all the way to $9.5K on Fanduel. Last season as a member of the Cavaliers, Irving played in the ATL twice and scored 43 and 45 real-life points in those games. For what it’s worth, Kyrie also shut down his counterpart, Dennis Schroder, on both occasions, limiting him to an average of only 26.5 Fanduel points. Uncle Drew is leading the league with 2.6 steals per game.
Al Horford should provide a tough matchup for Atlanta’s big guys in Dewayne Dedmon, Luke Babbit, and Collins. Inserting the slow-but-steady Horford into your lineups has a similar effect to a Xanax: just sit back, relax, and know he’ll get you a solid 30 fantasy points.
The Suns and Nets met last week in Brooklyn in what might-as-well have been called the Devon Booker vs. D’Angelo Russell Show. Booker shot the ball 22 times while Russell let it fly 21 times. With a projected Vegas game total of 236, one of the highest we’ll see all season, even Ricky Bobby would be proud of the speed this one will be played at.
After Russell’s Brooklyn squad failed to get the win in his homecoming to Los Angeles on Friday, look for D-Lo to come out motivated and firing away again on Monday. He’s cheaper on FD than on DK.
It appears that Alan Crabbe may finally be busting out of his early-season shooting slump for the Nets. Crabbe shot 4-8 from downtown and got to the free throw line 11 times, making 9, as he dropped 25 real-life points in a loss to the Lakers on Friday. Last season, Crabbe shot the 2nd highest percentage in the league on three-pointers, so we know the positive regression is lurking. Coach Kenny Atkinson seemed to echo this sentiment, telling reporters: “He was struggling because he missed a fair amount of time at training camp. I [don’t] think he was physically at his peak. You’ll see him get better as the season goes on” (nypost.com).
Phoenix is middle of the pack (17th) in total rebounding percentage, but due to the sheer volume of shots that each team will take we know the rebounds will be aplenty. Trevor Booker missed the last game for the Nets and if he sits again, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, who saw 37 minutes in Booker’s absence, will become an essential lock for us. Even if Booker suits up, both of Brooklyn’s power forwards will be in play at a weak PF position.
Opponents are shooting the 4th highest percentage from 3-point land in the league against the Suns, while the Nets yield the 6th highest percentage to their opponents.
The Suns will be playing their 5th game in 7 days, but because they’re a young team we shouldn’t be too concerned, outside of old wily vets like Tyson Chandler. Even though the Suns are on a back-to-back, no player recorded over 30 minutes of action on Sunday.
Apart from Lonzo Ball, almost every point guard has had their best game of the season against the Nets (although Jordan Clarkson did score over 30 fantasy points in that matchup). Mike James will be a top value option on Monday as he looks for a repeat of his 46-fantasy point bomb he dropped on Brooklyn last week. Casual box-score readers will see that Tyler Ulis played 28 minutes compared to James’ 20 on Sunday, but it’s evident that James is Coach Jay Triano’s guy and is the best bet to see a majority of the minutes as long as he’s not playing poorly. Because of Ulis’ price, especially on DK, he’s in play for gpp’s.
Thanks to missing most of the game versus the Knicks and a tough-matchup in San Antonio, T.J. Warren’s price is still very fair ($6.2 on FD and $5.7K on DK). Warren still shot the ball 18 times against the Spurs despite posting a disappointing fantasy score. I’m fully anticipating a bounce-back performance on Monday against the Nets.
Devin Booker is going to shoot the ball a ton, and if James and Ulis continue their middling play, he should dish out a few assists in this matchup as well. On this 3-game slate, locking Booker and/or Russell into your lineup is almost a no-brainer.
The Warriors will welcome the Heat on Monday night in a game in which Golden State opened as 15.5 point favorites. Given the spread and the fact that the Heat are traveling on the second night of a back-to-back, on a larger slate this game would qualify as Fade City. But for Monday we must consider all our options.
On Saturday night in Denver, Steph Curry came out of halftime absolutely scorching to lead his team to a blowout victory. Curry played the entire 3rd quarter and scored 11 points (3-5 on three-pointers) to go along with 2 assists, 2 steals, and a mind-blowing +24 plus/minus. Steph’s 41.5 Fanduel points don’t accurately reflect how dominating he was against the Nuggets. The Warriors’ television broadcast noted that his wife, Ayesha, was sitting courtside for this contest. So if anyone has inside information as to when she’ll be attending her next game, feel free to pass that along.
Steph’s backcourt mate, Klay Thompson, is happy to be back playing on his home court where last season he averaged 0.15 more Fanduel points per minute than he did on the road. It would be a plus for Klay if Dion Waiters returns to action for the Heat on Tuesday, otherwise he’ll likely draw Josh Richardson – who is a long, skilled defender.
Kevin Durant has been red-hot from the field over his last 4 games, shooting 10-14, 7-11, 9-18, and 9-13. Despite that, KD has failed to score over 50 fantasy points in any of those contests. Durant is second in the league to only Rudy Gobert with 2.4 blocks per game.
Draymond Green is a much stronger play on DraftKings where his price tag is $1.2K cheaper than on Fanduel.
Golden State is giving up the 7th most Fanduel points per minute (all positons combined) to their opponents, likely a symptom of playing at the 6th fastest pace in the league. The Warriors also hold the 3rd highest turnover percentage and are the 23rd best team in terms of defensive rating.
Miami had to re-insert their starters halfway through the 4th quarter to stop the bleeding and prevent an embarrassing collapse against the Clippers on Sunday. The Warriors have traditionally struggled with opposing centers, and Hassan Whiteside is the best positioned of all Heat players to put up a monster line on Monday. Young Whiteside is finally looking like he’s back to full strength, finishing with 21/17 3 steals and 2 blocks versus the Clips. At an incredibly fair price of only $7.0K on DraftKings, you’d have to think a 20/20 game against the Warriors is well within Whiteside’s range of potential outcomes.
Justise Winslow would have performed better against the Clippers if it wasn’t for picking up 5 fouls in only 17 minutes of action. Winslow’s teammate, Josh Richardson, should be called upon for a heavy workload against the Warriors and only comes with a price tag of $4.8K on Fanduel.
Choosing between Richardson, DeMarre Carroll, T.J. Warren, Taurean Price, Jaylen Brown, and Alan Crabbe at the SF position could be one the major keys to this slate. Because SF is fairly loaded, it may be advantageous to fade Durant and save some of your salary cap to pay-up elsewhere.
James Johnson and Draymond Green are two of the guys I’d least like to get into a street fight with, and both scrappy power forwards are top options at the position for us on Monday.
In the end, it’s evident that how you construct your lineups depends on whether or not you think the Warriors blow out the Heat. Nevertheless, the other two games should provide enough value for us to fit at least 1-2 of the high-priced studs into our lineups.
The Hawks, Celtics, Heat and Suns are all on the second night of a back-to-back.
The Brooklyn Nets are playing their first game in 2 nights.
Let’s Talk About Pace, Baby:
BOS (26) @ ATL (9)
BKN (1) @ PHX (2)
MIA (18) @ GS (6)
(League rank as of 11/5)
Do you have a take on this tricky-tricky slate? I’d love to hear any feedback in the comments section below.
You can follow Jeremy on Twitter @zinneDFS