PACKHAM'S PUNCH: A DAY IN THE LIFE...

 

This is a weekly article to discuss my thoughts regarding playing cash games.  Cash games are generally considered to be Head to Head, Double Ups, 50/50’s, Triple-ups, as well as small multi-player (3-10) games where your chances of cashing are 33% or higher.  In previous articles we have discussed how to chose your cash game contest as well as how to build that lineup each night.

 

Tuesday November 7th

 

After a couple of rough nights just missing cashing by 1 point in all my large 2000+ player Double-up cash contests and having some stat corrections ruin my winnings… my bankroll is down the furthest it’s been in a while.   Ugh.  NFL brought it up slightly on Sunday but this month needs to get turned in the right direction… in a hurry

So, I must be disciplined and still only play my percentages.  I will attack today’s slate just as hard as always but with less riding on it in the contests.  If I prevail I will start rebuilding my bankroll.  If not, my appropriate percentages will continue tomorrow until my breakthrough.  Eventually I will have a great night if I continue on my normal process.

So Welcome to a day in the life of @cpackham007.

 

5:15 am (Mountain Standard Time)

I’m up way to early.  I start my day by reviewing last night and checking my process.  My core was D Russell, Booker, Warren and Horford.  In hindsight, I almost went with James Johnson and Dwayne Dedmon and Draymond Green and L Babbitt… but instead I ran with RHJ, Whiteside and Zaza, Tyler Johnson.  Had I stuck with that first group of guys I would have won every contest.  My process was good but my lineup lock decisions must missed. 

 

5:30 am

To begin, I listen to the Judge while working out at the gym (daily routine… or running).  Beal or Booker was awesome with an amazing Guest from Salt Lake City, Utah on the show today.  LOL. 

 

6:30 am

Showered, drove over the the hospital to round on a couple of patients and grab breakfast.  Sit down to eat and do my initial Early Morning Research… 10 minutes.  As I ran through the VEGAS numbers including O/U and spread, I became very intrigued with the Brooklyn verses Denver and the Milwaukee versus Cleveland game.  I plan on only building 1 lineup tonight and I would think I will definitely have 4-6 players from these matches.    I also looked at PACE and overall team POINT PROJECTIONS which kept me on these games along with New Orleans vs Indiana and Charlotte vs New York. 

Finally, a quick run throughout the defense verses position (DvP).  I would note that there are a few obvious standout plays in some really good match ups.  I need to remember this when constructing my ideal line up later today.  But it looks like Brooklyn, Milwaukee & Washington players have good DvP today. 

Some that aren't in those main 4 games that I Want to focus on as well would include Harrison Barnes, the Front Courts in Washington, Utah and OKC and maybe the backcourt in Memphis.  Okay that is my initial research. 

 

6:40 am

Finished eating… I will now place the players in to their specific groupings and I will cut out as many as I can to try to cut it down to about 20-30 players to look at today,

 

Group I:  Studs.  Cousins 11.5, LBJ 11.4, AD 11.2, Giannis 10.8, Porzingas 9.4

Group II: Top Plays. Simmons 8.8 (? Vs Utah), Jokic 8.5, Beal 8.3, Dipo 8.0, Gobert 7.9, Russell 7.9, Love 7.5, PG13 7.4, Kemba 7.3, Middleton 7.0,

Group III: Core Plays. Millsap 6.8, Jrue 6.7, Otto 6.7, Kanter 6.3, Collison 6.2, THJ 6.1, Lamb 5.9, Adams 5.9, Barton 5.9, Barnes 5.8, Young 5.7, Brogdon, Gortat 5.5, Carroll 5.5

Group IV:  Stuffers. J Murray 5.4, Harris 5.2, Ibaka 5.0, Ingles 4.9, Oubre 4.9, Wade 4.8, Rose 4.8, Henson 4.7, Morris 4.7, Mudiay 4.7, Bogdanovic 4.6, Crowder 4.6, LeVert 4.6,

Group V:  Value.  Valentine 4.4, Lee 4.3, Crabbe 4.3, Nelson 4.2, Green 4.2, Monk, 4.2, Frazier 4.1, KOQ 4.0, Powell 4.0, Mills 3.9, Zip 3.9, Chalmers 3.8, Ntilikina 3.8, Korver 3.6, Bacon 3.5, Harris 3.5, Paul 3.5, Maker 3.4, Acy 3.0

 

7:05 am

Now I jump into my work day and just check my phone for notifications from NBA news along with the DG Courtroom Slack-chat to see who the smart guys are talking about.  At lunch I entered the contests I like and build an initial DK and FD lineup.   At first I tried building lineups with both Giannis and LeBron in them but didn’t like some of the value plays so I ended up building a balanced lineup and I really liked that.  Since my bankroll is dangerously low I only allowed myself to play 10 dollars in cash games, $1 in a quintuple up and $2 in a 10x booster on DK along with $2 in a double up on FD.  I also played Chambers on both sites.  Again, Bankroll management.  I plan on playing all season but my family budget only lets me deposit so much per month.  Hoping to steady build but can’t keep messing up rosters.

 

12:45 pm

My initial lunch build had me on Jokic, Gobert, Olidipo, Middleton, Adams, Acy, G Harris, and N Powell. (Hindsight note… damn I should have kept that one.)

 

4:45 pm

Right before lock.  Lots of information was coming in late tonight:

Was Dwight Howard gonna play.  If not I was gonna go crazy with Porzingas shares … but Howard active  so I fade Zing. 

Was K Love going to play… Milwaukee sucks defending Centers.  If not, I would fade to Gobert, Jokic, or Adams.  Love is in I find out late and he’s in my lineup.  I stick with Oladipo as NO is notoriously bad against SG’s.  I stick with Middleton to get Milwaukee exposure in that game and I throw Brogdon in. His last game starting as the Bucks traded for Bledsoe and I think he goes nuts off Rose defense. 

Barnes is that boring 30 point guy and Washington struggles against PF’s as I mentioned from my DvP research earlier.  I still need exposure to Denver…. So…  I throw in Mudiay as he has been hot lately and Jamal Murray is now the Broken Arrow.  I wanna get a Denver big in since RHJ is out but can’t get up to anybody as no value has popped up.  Then…. In the final minute I hear that Yogi Ferrell is starting for Dallas and BAM… I put him in and am able to fit Millsap.  (Hindsight… Should have put Wes Johnson in here and somehow figured how to jump up to Jokic… but Millsap wasn’t a bad process play)

Lineup:  Ferrell, Oladipo, Middleton, Barnes, Love, Brogdon, Millsap, Mudiay. 

In the final minute I try to swap in Covington, Evans, Barton, and Gobert instead of Love, Brogdon, Middleton, & Millsap but I run out of time as my phone froze up.  I would have liked the lineup either way so we’ll go with fate that my phone locked up.

By the way… I did make some last minute changes to my FD lineup.  My final product there:

Walker, Mudiay, Rivers, Oladipo, LeBron, Zipser, Crowder, Porzingis, Adams… We’ll see.

So how did the night play out? 

 

6 pm

My team is looking great, but when you have a number of players in the early game that can happen.  I’ve learned to not get too high when I see my total winnings (Potentially).

 

I’m so happy I left it how it was because my phone froze up.

 

6:15 pm

Oh no! Victor Oladipo is in foul trouble. However,  Love is going crazy as I figured he would and so are almost all of my other guys. I sure hope Victor has a humongous second half to set the stage for my Denver boys later tonight. I sit in first place in every contest and I’m in 16th Pl. out of 2500 people in a double up. I sure wish I could’ve played more contests tonight at this rate. Knock on wood

 

7:30 pm

Out in the 40° weather watching my son Alek (He was mentioned on Beal or Booker) play in the marching band. Just checked my phone and the early games are over and I’m still ahead in every contest. Just my Denver guys but they are starting out as snowflakes. (DK symbol for really bad)

Drummer.jpg

 

8:13 pm

I just got in the car after freezing my butt off but enjoying my son‘s band performance. It looks like I’m not gonna be able to hold onto Chambers tonight unless Milsap and Mudiay go crazy in the second half of their game against Brooklyn. I’m hoping to place. I’m still ahead of my other contests at this point but I’m really wishing I’d played Jokic. There are till two late night games but they’re going to be under played by most players so I think I’m in pretty good position to profit back some of my losses over the weekend.  

 

8:34 pm

This is the moment that I realized I’m not going to win chambers tonight on DraftKings. I kissed FanDuel off a long time ago.  My decision to not play Jokic tonight has come back to haunt me severely. I’m also realizing that I had a big Value miss.  I can’t believe I didn’t jump on Wes Johnson when Gallo was ruled out.  Everybody that played him is crushing.  Plus… Jokic is going ham on Brooklyn right now. Meanwhile, manual Mudiay hasn’t even shown up in about the last 12 minutes of actual game time. Can’t have that if I’m gonna cash.

 

8:46 pm

My free fall down the chambers rankings is almost complete. I’m really in trouble. In my other contests I’m still gold. Yokich is going to be the play of the night.

 

10:01 pm

Nights over.  I ended up with a 20% ROI tonight.  Most of the night I was at a 500% ROI so I’m a little down.  Oh well.  That’s DFS life.  Glad to be in the black and ready to take on tomorrow.  In going over my process from the day I wouldn’t change anything.  Wish I could have fit Jokic in and wish I would have jumped on the late Clipper news but oh well.

 

 

You can reach Craig on twitter @cpackham007 or on the slack chat.  You can also email him at cpackham007@yahoo.com.  He’d love to hear your takes as well.